罗兰贝格：2030+混合燃料和汽车发展路线图(英文 138 页)

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Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030

If the current regulations were extended to 2030, the road transport sector in the European Union could significantly reduce well-to-wheel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1,100 Mton (today) to 862 Mton (2030) and reduce emissions to levels targeted by the European Commission (-30% in 2030 vs. 2005). Increasing penetration of optimized internal combustion engines in the fleet could be the major contributor to this reduction. Bringing optimized engines as well as alternative fuel and vehicle technologies to the market is a significant challenge for the oil and auto industry and could account for EUR 380-390 bn of cumulated incremental powertrain costs from 2010 to 2030. These are some of the major findings of an evaluation of fuel and vehicle technologies Roland Berger was commissioned to conduct by a coalition of fuel suppliers and automotive companies* with a view to identifying an Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+ to identify GHG abatement options at the lowest cost to society.

"The EU's current regulatory framework for road transport decarbonization needs to be updated for the post-2020 period in order to create certainty for investment in low-carbon vehicles and fuels," explained Dr. Thomas Schlick, Partner at Roland Berger. The Roland Berger study is therefore designed to develop an objective view of possible measures for GHG abatement and at the same time provides an integrated roadmap taking into account the feasibility of all fuel and vehicle technologies along with infrastructure and the required policy framework beyond 2020.

*The Auto Fuel Coalition comprises BMW, Daimler, Honda, NEOT/St1, Neste, OMV, Shell, Toyota and Volkswagen.