联合国贸发会：2019年数字经济报告( 英文 194页)

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Contents

NOTE........iii

PREFACE.........iv

FOREWORD..... v

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.........vi

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS.....xiv

OVERVIEW..... xv

Chapter I. RECENT TRENDS IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY.......1

A. ON THE CUSP OF A NEW DIGITAL ERA....3

B. WHAT IS THE DIGITAL ECONOMY?...........3

1. Evolution of the digital economy concept........ 4

2. Main components of the digital economy........ 4

C. TRENDS IN EMERGING DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES..........6

1. Blockchain technologies.......... 6

2. Three-dimensional printing...... 6

3. Internet of things..... 7

4. 5G mobile broadband..... 7

5. Cloud computing..... 7

6. Automation and robotics......... 8

7. Artificial intelligence and data analytics.... 8

D. DATA TRAFFIC AND DATA CENTRES........9

E. TRENDS IN ACCESS TO AND USE OF ICT.....12

1. Trends in connectivity ........... 12

2. Connectivity gaps within countries......... 14

F. RECENT EVOLUTION OF E-COMMERCE .......15

G. THE RISE OF TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES IN THE GLOBAL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE.......17

H. CONCLUSIONS.........21

CHAPTER II. VALUE IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY.......23

A. DRIVERS OF VALUE CREATION IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY........25

1. Digital platforms.... 25

2. The central role of data and digital intelligence in the digital economy ........... 27

a. The complex nature of data...... 27

b. The economic value of data...... 29

i) The data value chain..... 29

ii) Data monetization......... 29

iii) “Ownership” of data...... 32

B. A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING VALUE IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY........33

1. Implications of the data-driven economy....... 33

2. Dimensions of value in the digital economy.... 37

a. Distribution of value........... 37

b. Scope for upgrading ........ 37

c. Governance of value creation.... 37

d. Value creation vs capture.......... 38

C. CHANNELS FOR VALUE CREATION IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES......38

1. Platformization...... 38

2. E-commerce platforms.......... 40

3. Digitalization of value chains.......... 42

D. NEW PATHS FOR VALUE ADDITION, STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT ........43

E. CONCLUDING REMARKS........44

CHAPTER III. MEASURING VALUE IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY.........47

A. CHALLENGES TO MEASURING VALUE IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY....49

1. Measuring the different dimensions of the digital economy.... 49

2. International initiatives for measuring the digital economy...... 50

B. VALUE ADDITION IN THE ICT SECTOR...........51

1. Overall trends in value added in the ICT sector ..... 51

2. Value added in ICT manufacturing ........ 54

3. Value added in telecommunications and computer services ......... 55

C. EMPLOYMENT IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY...........58

1. Employment in the ICT sector....... 58

2. Employment in ICT occupations.... 60

D. TRADE RELATED TO THE DIGITAL ECONOMY......62

1. Trade in ICT goods ....... 62

2. Trade in ICT services..... 64

3. Trade in digitally delivered services........ 65

E. VALUE ADDED IN E-COMMERCE....68

F. COMPREHENSIVE MEASUREMENT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY: SOME EXAMPLES.......69

1. Accounting for digital spillover effects.... 69

2. National initiatives to estimate the value of the digital economy...... 69

G. EVIDENCE OF THE VALUE OF THE DATA MARKET........70

H. CONCLUSIONS.........70

ANNEX TO CHAPTER III........72

CHAPTER IV. VALUE CREATION AND CAPTURE IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY:A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE......81

A. GLOBAL REACH OF MAJOR DIGITAL PLATFORMS......83

B. MARKET CONCENTRATION DYNAMICS.........84

1. Monopolistic trends....... 84

2. How platform companies strengthen their market positions........... 85

3. Expansion into other sectors......... 87

4. Information asymmetry and data .......... 88

5. Engaging in global policymaking ........... 88

C. THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF DATA .........89

D. DIGITAL DATA AND GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS.........92

1. Global data value chain......... 92

2. Digital advertising revenue..... 93

3. Cloud and infrastructure assets..... 94

E. DIGITAL PLATFORMS AND TAXES..........95

F. IMPACTS ON EMPLOYMENT AND PLATFORM WORK..........96

1. Impact of digitalization on employment ......... 96

2. Work related to digital platforms .......... 97

G. CONCLUDING REMARKS........99

CHAPTER V. ASSESSING THE SCOPE FOR VALUE CREATION AND CAPTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES...........103

A. THE IMPORTANCE OF BUILDING DOMESTIC PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY...........105

B. THE USE OF GLOBAL DIGITAL PLATFORMS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.....106

C. LEVERAGING LOCAL AND REGIONAL DIGITAL PLATFORMS.....108

1. Features of local and regional digital platforms .... 109

2. Drawbacks from the lack of innovation platforms......... 110

3. Limited growth potential of local and regional digital platforms..... 111

D. DIGITAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP.....112

1. Entrepreneurial ecosystems......... 112

2. Main ecosystem bottlenecks ...... 112

a. Small and fragmented local markets....... 112

b. Inadequate entrepreneurial knowledge and skills .... 113

c. Lack of a highly skilled and affordable workforce..... 113

d. Limited access to finance........ 113

3. Innovation hubs: Opportunities and challenges ........... 114

4. Unevenness and vicious cycles in ecosystem development......... 116

E. STRATEGIES FOR DIGITAL ENTERPRISES IN AFRICA .......117

1. Old-school sustainability: Customer relationship scaling as a viable alternative.... 117

2. Last-mile platforms: Moderate user-base scaling through digital-analog infrastructures....... 118

3. Using exclusive local assets to derive value for clients in developed countries..... 118

F. DIGITALIZATION OF ENTERPRISES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES....119

G. CONCLUSIONS.......121

CHAPTER VI. POLICIES AIMED AT VALUE CREATION AND CAPTURE...........123

A. INTRODUCTION......125

B. NATIONAL POLICIES FOR CREATING AND CAPTURING VALUE IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY.......125

1. Connecting the dots in policy-making..........125

2. Lessons from UNCTAD’s Rapid eTrade Readiness Assessments of LDCs ..........126

a. Strategy formulation........127

b. ICT infrastructure and services development...........127

c. Trade logistics measures.........127

d. Payment solutions...........127

e. Legal and regulatory frameworks....127

f. Skills development..........127

g. Access to financing.........128

3. Fostering digital entrepreneurship and innovation........128

4. Empowering women entrepreneurs in the digital economy..........130

5. Supporting the digitalization of enterprises..........131

C. DATA POLICIES FOR CAPTURING VALUE....131

1. Data ownership policies...... 131

a. Personal data markets.... 132

b. Data trusts...... 132

c. Collective data ownership....... 132

d. Digital data commons..... 134

2. Data protection and privacy......... 134

3. Data security ...... 135

4. Regulating cross-border data flows..... 135

a. A balancing act....... 135

b. Data flows and trade agreements.... 136

5. Building skills for data-driven development ......... 137

D. COMPETITION POLICY ..........138

1. Updating competition policy for the digital economy.... 138

2. Competition law enforcement...... 138

a. Defining the relevant market.... 138

b. Abuse of market power assessment....... 139

c. Merger review......... 139

3. Regulation as a solution...... 140

4. The need for greater international collaboration........... 141

E. TAXATION OF DIGITAL PLATFORMS ....142

1. Issues at stake.... 142

2. Current policy developments ...... 142

3. Enhancing developing-country involvement in global tax debates........ 144

F. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS POLICIES IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY....144

G. LABOUR MARKET AND SOCIAL PROTECTION POLICIES..........146

H. THE NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT........147

I. CONCLUSIONS: A DIGITAL ECONOMY FOR THE MANY, NOT JUST THE FEW.........148

REFERENCES...... 154

Boxes

II.1. Digital platform taxonomies – a moving target......... 26

II.2. Digital technologies and the productivity paradox........... 34

III.1. UNCTAD pilot surveys for measuring digitally delivered services...... 67

IV.1. Cyworld versus Facebook...... 85

IV.2. Experiences of workers on crowdworking platforms: Lessons from an ILO survey.......... 98

V.1. Digital innovation, products and entrepreneurship......... 108

V.2. BongoHive: From a community of enthusiasts to a leading innovation hub........... 115

V.3. The strategies of Andela and Gebeya........... 118

VI.1. UNCTAD platforms for international policy dialogue on the digital economy and development ..... 126

VI.2. India’s FarmerZone....... 133

VI.3. Data flows and the WTO....... 137

VI.4. Actions to enhance the digital dimension in development cooperation.......... 149

Tables

I.1. Mobile technology mix, by generation and region, 2018 and 2025.... 8

I.2. E-commerce sales: Top 10 countries, 2017.... 15

I.3. Estimated cross-border B2C sales: Top 10 merchandise exporters, 2017 ..... 16

I.4. Distribution of the top 100 websites by region........ 20

II.1. Sales fees/commissions charged by selected global platforms ...... 31

II.2. Potential impacts on value creation and capture from an expanding digital economy, by its components and actors..... 36

III.1. Exports of digitally deliverable services, by region and by level of development, 2005 and 2018..... 67

III.2. Monitoring the data market, selected economies, 2017.......... 70

IV.1. Selected acquisitions by six major digital platforms, 2010–2018  86

IV.2. Facebook and Alphabet (Google) revenues, profits and taxes, 2017....... 95

Annexes

III.1. ICT sector value added and employment, by different statistical classifications: Example of the Philippines, 2015....... 73

III.2. ICT sector value added as a share of GDP, 2010–2017 ......... 74

III.3. ICT sector employment as a share of total employment, 2010–2017...... 76

CONTENTS

DIGITAL ECONOMY REPORT 2019

Figures

I.1. A representation of the digital economy.... 6

I.2. Geographical distribution of spending on Internet of things, 2019 .... 7

I.3. Cloud traffic, by region, 2016–2021.......... 9

I.4. Evolution of global Internet Protocol traffic...... 10

I.5. Internet Protocol traffic, 2017–2022........ 10

I.6. Global cross-border bandwidth, 2005–2017 .......... 11

I.7. Submarine cable map..... 11

I.8. Geographical distribution of colocation data centres, February 2019...... 12

I.9. Telephone subscriptions, global and by level of development, 2005–2018 ..... 13

I.10. Broadband subscriptions, global and by level of development, 2005–2018.... 13

I.11. Internet use, global and by level of development, 2005–2018......... 14

I.12. Gender gap in Internet use, by level of development and region, 2013 and 2017.... 14

I.13. Global online shoppers, 2015–2017....... 16

I.14. Use of Internet for online purchases, country groups by level of income, 2017....16

I.15. Mobile money accounts, by country group, 2017........... 17

I.16. World’s top 20 companies by market capitalization, by sector, 2009 versus 2018........... 18

I.17. Geographical distribution of the main global platforms in the world, 2018.....19

II.1. From linear production to feedback loops in the digital economy.... 39

II.2. E-commerce in the landscape of digital platforms .......... 41

II.3. The smile curve and the impact of digitalization...... 42

II.4. From industrialization to digitalization ..... 43

III.1. Growth in the share of the ICT sector’s value added in GDP: Top 10 economies, 2010–2017......... 52

III.2. Value added in the ICT sector: Top 10 economies, 2017, or latest available year.... 52

III.3. Share of the ICT sector’s value added in GDP, and its distribution by subsector: Top 10 economies, 2017..... 53

III.4. Growth in ICT sector value added as a share of GDP, selected developing and transition economies,

2010–2017..... 54

III.5. Geographical distribution of value added in ICT manufacturing, 2017..... 54

III.6. Value added in ICT manufacturing as a share of GDP: Top 10 economies, 2017, or latest available year........ 55

III.7. Value added in telecommunications: Top 10 economies, 2017, or latest available year..........55

III.8. Value added in telecommunications as a share of GDP: Top 10 economies, 2017, or latest available year...... 56

III.9. Value added in communications services as a share of GDP: Top 10 economies, 2015.......... 56

III.10. Value added in computer services: Top 10 economies, 2017, or latest year available...... 57

III.11. Value added in computer services as a share of GDP: Top 10 economies, 2017, or latest available year........ 57

Annex figure

III.1. Share of ICT sector value added in GDP: Differences between national ICT sector and ISIC two-digit definitions,selected countries, 2016 or latest available year..... 72

III.12. Growth rate of value added in ICT, by subsector, selected economies, 2010–2017, or latest available year.... 58

III.13. Mexico: ICT subsectors’ share of value added in GDP, 1993–2017........ 59

III.14. Distribution of global ICT sector employment, by subsector, 2010–2015........ 59

III.15. ICT sector employment as a share of total employment and distribution by subsector: Top 10 economies, 2015........60

III.16. Shares of employment in computer services and telecommunication services in total ICT sector employment,selected economies, 2015, or latest available year......61

III.17. Serbia: Share of enterprises that employ ICT specialists, all enterprises and by selected industries, 2018....... 62

III.18. Bangladesh: Estimates of ICT-related employment, selected years......... 62

III.19. Geographical distribution of trade in ICT goods, 2017.... 63

III.20. Share of ICT goods trade in total merchandise trade: Top 10 economies, 2017...... 63

III.21. Share of ICT services in total exports of services: Top 20 countries, 2017....... 64

III.22. Computer services: Exports as a share of output, and output relative to GDP, selected countries, 2016 or latest available year.......... 65

III.23. Global exports of digitally deliverable services, ICT services and total services, 2005–2018.... 66

III.24. Philippines: E-commerce sales by sector, 2015....... 68

III.25. Malaysia: Value added of e-commerce, and its contribution to GDP, 2010–2017.... 68

IV.1. Annual spending on lobbying by digital platforms in the United States, 2013–2018...... 89

IV.2. Use of interregional bandwidth, 2018...... 90

IV.3. Global advertising expenditure by different media, 2010 and 2017...... 93

IV.4. Share of Internet advertising revenue, by company, 2010–2017.......... 93

IV.5. Estimated growth of spending on digital advertising: Top 10 countries, 2019.......... 94

V.1. Online content creation, by geographical region.... 106

V.2. Proportion of small and large enterprises receiving orders over the Internet, selected countries, 2018.......... 120