麦肯锡：欧洲净零排放报告(英文 204 页)

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Net-Zero Europe

Decarbonization pathways and socioeconomic implications

净零欧洲

脱碳途径及其社会经济影响

Contents

Key messages 10

Executive summary 12

1. Getting to net-zero by 2050 38

1.1 Aiming for climate neutrality 40

1.2 The situation today 41

1.2.1 EU GHG Emissions 41

1.2.2 The EU energy system 41

1.3 The road ahead 46

2. The EU pathway to climate neutrality 50

2.1 Net-zero emissions at net-zero cost 52

2.1.1 The costs of emissions-reduction by sector 52

2.1.2 The pace of emissions-reduction by sector 53

2.1.3 Key geographic differences in emissions-reduction pathways 56

2.2 Technologies and techniques required to reach net-zero emissions 58

2.3 Redesigning the EU energy system and changing land use 66

2.3.1 Transforming the EU energy system 66

2.3.2 An expanded view on EU land use 71

2.4 Pathway ambiguities 76

3. Sector deep-dives 78

3.1 Power 80

3.1.1 Power emissions today 82

3.1.2 The role of power on the path to net-zero 82

3.1.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 92

3.2 Transportation 94

3.2.1 Transportation emissions today 96

3.2.2 The role of transportation on the path to net-zero 98

3.2.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 102

3.3 Industry 104

3.3.1 Industry emissions today 106

3.3.2 The role of industry on the path to net-zero 112

3.3.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 116

3.4 Buildings 118

3.4.1 Building emissions today 120

3.4.2 The role of buildings on the path to net-zero 120

3.4.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 124

3.5 Agriculture 126

3.5.1 Agriculture emissions today 128

3.5.2 The role of agriculture on the path to net-zero 129

3.5.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 132

3.6 Cross-sector: Hydrogen 134

3.6.1 Hydrogen use today 136

3.6.2 The role of hydrogen on the path to net-zero 137

3.6.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 140

3.7 Cross-sector: CCS 142

3.7.1 CCS installations today 144

3.7.2 The role of CCS on the path to net-zero 145

3.7.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 148

3.8 Cross-sector: Bioenergy 150

3.8.1 Bioenergy use today 152

3.8.2 The role of bioenergy on the path to net-zero 152

3.8.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 158

3.9 Cross-sector: Nature-based carbon sequestration 160

3.9.1 Nature-based carbon sequestration today 162

3.9.2 The role of nature-based carbon sequestration on the path to net-zero 162

3.9.3 Key uncertainties and enablers 166

4. The socioeconomic implications of decarbonizing Europe 168

4.1 Financing the transition 170

4.1.1 The capital investments required 170

4.1.2 Operating cost reductions 171

4.1.3 Bridging the financing gap 172

4.1.4 Impact on households 178

4.1.5 Stranded assets 182

4.2 Job gains and job losses 183

4.2.1 Emissions reductions would lead to 5 million more jobs 183

4.2.2 Reskilling the workforce 187

4.3 Risks and opportunities in trade and production 188

4.3.1 The impact on fossil fuel trade balance and energy dependency 188

4.3.2 A potential shift in import dependencies from fossil fuels to zero-emission technologies

and materials 188

4.3.3 EU production and exports 189

4.3.4 EU industrial topography 189

5. Charting a way forward 190

5.1 The time is now 192

5.2 Critical players and actions to make change possible 194

5.2.1 The role of CEOs 195

5.2.2 The role of policy makers 196

5.2.3 No one left behind 197

6. Technical appendix 198

Modeling methodology 198

EU regions in the report 198

Financing analysis methodology 200

Household spending methodology 201

Jobs analysis methodology 201

7. Acronyms 202

内容

重要讯息10

执行摘要12

1.到2050年实现净零38

1.1致力于气候中和40

1.2今天的情况41

1.2.1欧盟温室气体排放量41

1.2.2欧盟能源体系41

1.3未来之路46

2.欧盟通往气候中和的道路50

2.1以零净成本计算的零净排放52

2.1.1按部门划分的减排成本52

2.1.2按部门划分的减排步伐53

2.1.3减排途径的主要地理差异56

2.2达到零净排放所需的技术58

2.3重新设计欧盟能源系统并改变土地利用66

2.3.1改造欧盟能源系统66

2.3.2对欧盟土地使用的扩展看法71

2.4路径歧义76

3.深层次分析78

3.1电源80

3.1.1今天的电力排放82

3.1.2功率在净零路径上的作用82

3.1.3主要不确定因素和推动因素92

3.2运输94

3.2.1今天的交通排放量96

3.2.2运输在通往零净值的道路上的作用98

3.2.3主要不确定因素和推动因素102

3.3行业104

3.3.1当今行业排放量106

3.3.2工业在实现净零的道路上的作用112

3.3.3主要不确定因素和推动因素116

3.4建筑物118

3.4.1今天的建筑排放量120

3.4.2建筑物在零净路径上的作用120

3.4.3主要不确定因素和推动因素124

3.5农业126

3.5.1今天的农业排放量128

3.5.2农业在实现零净值道路上的作用129

3.5.3主要不确定因素和推动因素132

3.6跨行业：氢气134

3.6.1今天的氢气使用136

3.6.2氢在净零路径上的作用137

3.6.3主要不确定因素和推动因素140

3.7跨行业：CCS 142

3.7.1如今安装的CCS 144

3.7.2 CCS在实现零净值的道路上的作用145

3.7.3主要不确定因素和推动因素148

3.8跨行业：生物能源150

3.8.1今天的生物能源利用152

3.8.2生物能源在实现净零的道路上的作用152

3.8.3主要不确定因素和推动因素158

3.9跨部门：基于自然的碳固存160

3.9.1今天基于自然的碳固存162

3.9.2基于自然的碳固存在实现净零的道路上的作用162

3.9.3主要不确定因素和推动因素166

4.欧洲脱碳的社会经济影响168

4.1过渡融资170

4.1.1所需的资本投资170

4.1.2降低运营成本171

4.1.3弥合融资缺口172

4.1.4对家庭的影响178

4.1.5搁浅资产182

4.2工作收获和失业183

4.2.1减少排放量将增加500万个工作岗位183

4.2.2劳动力再培训187

4.3贸易和生产中的风险和机遇188

4.3.1对化石燃料贸易平衡和能源依赖的影响188

4.3.2进口依赖从化石燃料到零排放技术的潜在转变和材料188

4.3.3欧盟生产和出口189

4.3.4欧盟工业地形189

5.制定前进方向190

5.1现在的时间是192

5.2至关重要的参与者和采取行动使改变成为可能194

5.2.1 CEO的角色195

5.2.2政策制定者的作用196

5.2.3没有人被遗弃197

6.技术附录198

建模方法198

欧盟地区报告198

融资分析方法论200

家庭支出方法论201

工作分析方法论201

7.首字母缩写词202