IMF：世界经济展望（2016-10）(英文 289 页)

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World Economic Outlook

October 2016

CONTENTS

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1

Recent Developments and Prospects 1

The Forecast 18

Risks 26

Policy Priorities 29

Scenario Box 1. Tariff Scenarios 37

Box 1.1. World Growth Projections over the Medium Term 40

Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on

Food Security and Markets in the World Economy 48

References 60

Chapter 2. Global Trade: What’s behind the Slowdown? 63

The Implications of Trade for Productivity and Welfare: A Primer 66

The Slowdown in Trade Growth: Key Patterns 67

Understanding the Slowdown in Trade Growth 69

Summary and Policy Implications 85

Box 2.1. Is the Trade Slowdown Contributing to the Global Productivity Slowdown? New Evidence 88

Box 2.2. The Role of Trade Policies in Reinvigorating Trade 91

Box 2.3. Potential Gains from Jump-Starting Trade Liberalization 94

Annex 2.1. Data 95

Annex 2.2. Constructing Disaggregated Import Volume and Price Indices 95

Annex 2.3. Analysis Using an Empirical Model of Import Demand 98

Annex 2.4. Analysis Using a General Equilibrium Model 106

Annex 2.5. Analysis at the Product Level 107

Annex 2.6. Analysis Using Gravity Model of Trade 110

References 115

Chapter 3. Global Disinflation in an Era of Constrained Monetary Policy 121

A Primer on the Costs of Disinflation, Persistently Low Inflation, and Deflation 124

Inflation Dynamics: Patterns and Recent Drivers 126

How Well Anchored Are Inflation Expectations? 134

Summary and Policy Implications 142

Box 3.1. Industrial Slack and Producer Price Inflation 145

Box 3.2. The Japanese Experience with Deflation 147

Box 3.3. How Much Do Global Prices Matter for Food Inflation? 150

Box 3.4. The Impact of Commodity Prices on Producer Price Inflation 154

Box 3.5. A Transparent Risk-Management Approach to Monetary Policy 156

Annex 3.1. Sample and Data 158

Annex 3.2. Model Simulations 158

Annex 3.3. Principal Component Analysis 160

Annex 3.4. Drivers of the Recent Decline in Inflation 161

Annex 3.5. The Effect of Inflation Shocks on Inflation Expectations 164

References 168

Chapter 4. Spillovers from China’s Transition and from Migration 171

Introduction 171

The Challenges and Opportunities of Migration 183

Box 4.1. China’s Ties with Low-Income and Developing Countries 195

Box 4.2. Conflicts Driving Migration: Middle East and North Africa 196

Box 4.3. Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa 197

References 199

Statistical Appendix 203

Assumptions 203

What’s New 204

Data and Conventions 204

Country Notes 205

Classification of Countries 205

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 206

Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP,

Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2015 207

Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 208

Table C. European Union 208

Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of

Export Earnings 209

Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and

Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 210

Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 212

Table G. Key Data Documentation 213

Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 223

List of Tables

Output (Tables A1–A4) 228

Inflation (Tables A5–A7) 235

Financial Policies (Table A8) 240

Foreign Trade (Table A9) 241

Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 243

Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 250

Flow of Funds (Table A14) 254

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15) 257

World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 259