麦肯锡：经济、可靠、具有竞争力的净零排放之路(英文 48 页)

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一个成功的零排放过渡将需要实现四个目标，而不仅仅是一个。我们提供了一个指南，以确保正确实现这些目标。

At a glance

尽管已经取得了一些有意义的动力，但全球并没有朝着巴黎协定中规定的将全球变暖限制在远低于2摄氏度或理想情况下为1.5摄氏度的目标迈进。为了实现这一目标，各国和企业已经承诺实现二氧化碳零排放，并减少其他温室气体的排放。但进展不够。例如，可再生能源占主要能源的比例从2010年的8％缓慢上升到2021年的12％。如果排放保持当前轨迹，来自各方的估算表明，零排放甚至可能在本世纪末才能实现。

A successful net-zero transition will require achieving not one objective but four interdependent ones: emissions reduction, affordability, reliability, and industrial competitiveness. A poorly executed transition could make energy, materials, and other products less affordable, compromising economic empowerment. It could also make the supply of energy and materials less secure and resilient, and it could render some countries and companies less competitive. If that happened, progress toward net zero itself could stall.

**成功的零排放过渡将需要实现四个相互依赖的目标：减排、可负担性、可靠性和产业竞争力。一次执行不当的过渡可能会使能源、材料和其他产品变得不太可负担，从而损害经济赋权。它还可能使能源和材料的供应变得不太安全和有弹性，可能使一些国家和企业变得不太具竞争力。如果发生这种情况，那么朝着零排放的进展本身可能会停滞不前。

Our research has found practical ways to address those objectives simultaneously. Seven principles can help stakeholders successfully navigate the next phase of the transition. For example, deploying lower-cost solutions and driving down the cost of more expensive ones could bolster affordability. Managing existing and emerging energy systems in parallel could make access to energy more reliable. Seeking opportunities by using comparative advantage as a guide could help countries bolster their competitiveness.

**我们的研究找到了同时解决这些目标的实际方法。七个原则可以帮助利益相关者成功地引导过渡的下一阶段。例如，部署更低成本的解决方案并降低更昂贵解决方案的成本可以增强可负担性。同时管理现有和新兴的能源系统可以使获得能源的途径更加可靠。通过利用比较优势作为指导寻找机会可以帮助国家增强竞争力。

Following those principles could substantially improve the world’s current trajectory. We examined the potential implications of applying two principles: deploying more lower-cost solutions and using R&D and other measures to double the expected rate of cost declines. Our illustrative analyses found that doing so could substantially improve the current trajectory of emissions and help limit warming to what the Paris Agreement envisions. Capital spending on low-emissions technologies would potentially be one and a half to two times as large as it is now—as opposed to about three times, as might be the case if the two principles were applied less extensively.

**遵循这些原则可以从根本上改善世界当前的发展轨迹。我们研究了应用两个原则的潜在影响：部署更多低成本解决方案和利用研发和其他手段使成本降低的预期速度加倍。我们的例证性分析发现，这样做可以从根本上改善当前的排放轨迹，并有助于将全球变暖限制在巴黎协定所设想的范围内。对低排放技术的资本支出有可能会是现在的1.5到2倍，而不是如果较少地应用这两个原则的话可能是大约3倍。

Embracing a change of mindset can help the world move closer to net zero. In addition to global commitments to reach net zero in the future, stakeholders should commit to making more and more progress every year and doing so in a way that addresses all four objectives.

拥抱思维方式的改变可以帮助世界更接近零排放。除了未来全球达到零排放的承诺之外，利益相关者应致力于每年取得更多进展，并以解决所有四个目标的方式来实现这一目标。

Contents

目录

At a glance 2

一瞥 2

There has been meaningful momentum toward net zero 4

虽然如此，世界并未朝着2050年实现净零排放的目标迈进 5

A poorly executed transition could compromise affordability, reliability, and competitiveness—and slow progress toward net zero 9

一次执行不善的过渡可能会损害经济可承受性、可靠性和竞争力，并减缓朝着净零排放的进展 9

A well-managed transition would follow seven principles 14

一个良好管理的过渡将遵循七个原则 14

An illustration shows how following those principles could accelerate the world’s current trajectory 36

一图展示了遵循这些原则如何加速世界当前的轨迹 36

Embracing a change of mindset can help the world move closer to its net-zero goals 41

拥抱心态的变革可以帮助世界更接近实现净零排放的目标 41

Technical appendix 43

技术附录 43

Acknowledgments 46

致谢 46