全球铁矿石行业报告

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 citi——Global Iron Ore Outlook
Contents

Executive Summary  5
Ranking the iron ore producers  7
Iron ore-a darling of the super-cycle  7
Prices at all time highs  8
Outlook to 2014  9
China Steel Demand Scenarios  11
Beyond 2014-A Scenario Approach  12
Peak margins? Downside potential to mid-cycle  13
From price focus to cost focus  15
Medium term supply growth-the fastest growing commodity  ;17
Supply side Scenarios  20
West Africa Iron Ore-Huge Challenges  22
Long Term Supply-Demand Balance  25
Cost of new iron ore projects  26
Margin pressure looms  29
Price always trumps volume  29
There is still value in the space  30
Valuation and Operational Comparatives  31
Cheap growth desirable  31
Long reserve lives  32
Reserve life vs EV/tonne-the inverse relationship  33
5 year P/E vs Reserve life  35
Further valuation metrics  36
Financial Comparatives  38
Expansion project details  41
Carajas Serra Sul (Brazil)-Vale  41
Solomon (Australia)  41
RGP5 (Australia)  42
Cape Lambert exapnsion (Australia)  42
Casa de Pedra (Brazil)-CSN  43
MMX Sudeste (Brazil)  44
Chichester (Australia)  44
RGP6 (Australia)  45
Carajas+40 (Brazil)  46
West Pilbara Project (Australia)  46
Jack Hills (Australia)  47
Minas Rio (Brazil)  49
Apolo (Brazil)-Vale  50
Kalia Phase I (Guinea)  51
Marillana (Australia)  52
Mineracao Usiminas (Brazil)  53
Atlas iron-North Pilbara DSO project (Australia)  54
Tonkolili (Sierra Leone)  55
Kolomela mine (South Africa)  56
Khumani Expansion 16mtpa (South Africa)  57
African Rainbow Minerals (ARIJ.J)  58
Anglo American PLC (AAL.L)  59
Atlas Iron Ltd (AGO.AX)  60
BHP Billiton PLC (BLT.L)  61
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF)  62
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (CSNA3.SA)  63
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC)(ENRC.L)  64
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG.AX)  65
Gindalbie Metals Ltd (GBG.AX)  66
Grange Resources Limited (GRR.AX)  67
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIOJ.J)  68
Mount Gibson Iron (MGX.AX)  69
Murchison Metals Ltd (MMX.AX)  70
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO.L)  71
Vale (VALE)  72
Exxaro Resources Limited (EXXJ.J)  73
African Rainbow Minerals  74
Company description  74
Investment strategy  74
Valuation  74
Risks  74
Anglo American PLC  75
Company description  75
Investment strategy  75
Valuation  75
Risks  75
Atlas Iron Ltd  76
Company description  76
Investment strategy  76
Valuation  76
Risks  76
BHP Billiton PLC  77
Company description  77
Investment strategy  77
Valuation  77
Risks  77
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.  78
Company description  78
Investment strategy  78
Valuation  78
Risks  79
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional  79
Company description  79
Investment strategy  79
Valuation  79
Risks  80
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC)  80
Company description  80
Investment strategy  80
Valuation  80
Risks  81
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd  81
Company description  81
Investment strategy  81
Valuation  81
Risks  82
Gindalbie Metals Ltd  82
Company description  82
Investment strategy  82
Valuation  82
Risks  82 
Grange Resources Limited  83
Company description  83
Investment strategy  83
Valuation  83
Risks  83
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd  84
Company description  84
Investment strategy  84
Valuation  84
Risks  84
Mount Gibson Iron  84
Company description  84
Investment strategy  85
Valuation  85
Risks  85
Murchison Metals Ltd  85
Company description  85
Investment strategy  85
Valuation  86
Risks  86
Rio Tinto PLC  86
Company description  86
Investment strategy  86
Valuation  86
Risks  86
Vale  87
Company description  87
Investment strategy  87
Valuation  87
Risks  87
Exxaro Resources Limited  88
Company description  88
Investment strategy  88
Valuation  88
Risks  88
Appendix A-1  92