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中国白酒研究报告（UBS 英文60页）

    2015-03-30

中国白酒研究报告（UBS 英文60页）

 Contents

UBS Evidence Lab: Survey in China shows ST and LT winners ..... 3
Implications for our spirits estimates ............................................. 5
International premium spirits estimates ........................................................ 5
Baijiu estimates ............................................................................................ 6
Investment summaries ..................................................................... 7
UBS Evidence Lab survey results ..................................................... 9
Key Survey takeaways in pictures ............................................................... 10
UBS Evidence Lab Survey Methodology ...................................................... 12
Consumption trends by category: "Intention Delta" vs last 12 months ...... 13
Implications for our view of Chinese New Year .......................................... 17
Changes in consumption trends in the last 12 months by occasion ............ 17
Why do consumers say they are spending more over the last 12 months? . 19
Consumption trends by occasion ............................................................... 20
Perceptions on prices & price tolerance ...................................................... 23
Branding matters, and increasingly so ......................................... 24
Brand awareness of Cognac, Whiskey and Baijiu ....................................... 25
How Consumers choose premium brands .................................................. 27
Cognac, Whiskey and Baijiu brand positioning by occasion ........................ 27
Other checks support near term trend favouring Baijiu ............. 43
2015 Chinese New Year Baijiu sales trend ................................................. 43
Latest Cognac trends in Asia from BNIC ..................................................... 43
Recent company comments on international premium spirits ..................... 45
Chinese liquor: Re-rating with earnings recovery + SOE reform 46
Revenue growth of Chinese liquor segment could turn positive in 2015 .... 46
Tier-2 Chinese liquor products could outpace tier-1 products .................... 47
Reform of Chinese liquor SOEs .................................................................. 49
Appendix ........................................................................................ 52
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