可再生能源市场报告( 英文 175页)

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根据国际能源署（IEA）最新的《可再生能源市场报告》，2021年将打破全球可再生能源增长的记录。尽管商品价格暴涨，这可能会阻碍未来向清洁能源的过渡。

到今年年底，预计将有290吉瓦的新增产能投入使用，2021年将打破去年刚刚创造的可再生能源电力增长记录。今年的新增容量甚至超过了国际能源署（IEA）在春季做出的预测。

Abstract

Renewables 2021 is the IEA’s primary analysis on the sector, based on current policies and market developments. It forecasts the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2026 while also exploring key challenges to the industry and identifying barriers to faster growth. 

Renewables are the backbone of any energy transition to achieve net zero. As the world increasingly shifts away from carbon emitting fossil fuels, understanding the current role renewables play in the decarbonisation of multiple sectors is key to ensuring a smooth pathway to net zero. 

While renewables continued to be deployed at a strong pace during the Covid-19 crisis, they face new opportunities and challenges. This year’s report frames current policy and market dynamics while placing the recent rise in energy and commodities prices in context. In addition to providing detailed market analysis and forecasts, Renewables 2021 also explores trends to watch including storage, producing hydrogen from renewable electricity, stimulus packages, aviation biofuels and residential heating. 

Table of contents

Executive summary .... 14

Improved policies and COP26 climate goals are set to propel renewable electricity growth to new heights ...... 14

Despite rising prices, solar PV will set new records and wind will grow faster than over the previous five years ....... 15

Asia is set to overtake Europe as India and Indonesia lead renewed growth in global demand for biofuels .... 16

Renewable heat has gained some policy momentum, but its market share is not set to

increase significantly .... 16

High commodity and energy prices bring significant uncertainties ...... 17

Supported by the right policies, recovery spending on renewables could unleash a huge wave of private capital ....... 18

Faster growth of renewables is within reach but requires addressing persistent challenges .. 18

Renewables’ penetration in to hard-to-decarbonise sectors is slowly emerging and promises a bright future ...... 19

Renewables need to grow faster than our forecasts to close the gap with a pathway to net

zero by 2050..... 19

Chapter 1. Renewable electricity ...... 21

Forecast summary .... 21

Renewable capacity additions are set to grow faster than ever in the next five years, but the expansion trend is not on track to meet the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario ...... 21

Growing policy momentum worldwide is driving our forecast upward ..... 22

Government-led auction capacity is in slight decline, but is compensated by robust corporate PPA activity ...... 24

Top-10 countries continue to dominate renewables expansion, indicating that more diversity is needed ..... 25

Solar PV breaks new records in our forecast, despite rising prices ..... 26

Low wind conditions and droughts in key markets hamper more rapid growth of renewable

generation in 2021 ....... 30

Achieving the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario requires policy makers to significantly increase

their ambition for all renewables ...... 34

Country and regional analysis ...... 35

China .... 35

United States .... 37

Asia Pacific ....... 40

India ...... 41

Japan .... 45

Korea .... 46

ASEAN ..... 47

Australia ....... 50

Europe ...... 52

Germany ....... 54

Spain .... 56

France ...... 58

The Netherlands ....... 60

Turkey ...... 62

Poland ...... 64

Italy ....... 65

United Kingdom .... 67

Denmark ....... 68

Belgium .... 69

Latin America ....... 71

Sub-Saharan Africa ...... 78

Middle East and North Africa ....... 81

References .... 84

Chapter 2. Biofuels ..... 89

Forecast summary .... 89

Biofuels recover in 2021 despite high costs ..... 89

Asia to surpass European biofuel production before 2026 ...... 90

Ethanol and renewable diesel lead biofuels growth ..... 91

Four policy discussions to watch that will help double biofuel growth rates .... 91

Demand and supply ...... 93

Asia surpasses European biofuel demand and supply .... 95

Different fuels for different parts of the world ....... 96

Fuel demand and government policies are driving different supply outcomes in different regions ...... 98

Biofuel demand growth doubles in the accelerated case ...... 102

Biofuels need to expand faster to align with the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario ..... 105

Trade ....... 107

Renewable diesel and biojet lead growth in net trade ....... 108

Singapore climbs to second largest exporter, while top importers remain the same .... 109

Ethanol and biojet import demand drives trade growth in the accelerated case ....... 110

References ...... 111

Chapter 3. Renewable heat ...... 114

Recent trends ...... 114

Global progress on conversion to renewable heat has been limited ..... 114

Policy update ....... 115

Renewable heat has gained some policy momentum, but not enough to put the heat sector on

track to meet climate ambitions ...... 115

Outlook to 2026 ....... 122

Buildings ..... 123

Industry ....... 125

References ...... 129

Chapter 4. Renewable energy trends to watch ..... 133

What is the impact of increasing commodity and energy prices on solar PV, wind and biofuels? ...... 133

Wind and solar PV ..... 133

How do commodity prices affect the investment costs of solar PV and onshore wind? .... 134

Rising energy prices and trade policies put additional upward price pressure on wind and solar .... 138

Despite rising equipment prices, wind and solar remain competitive .... 140

How much will renewable energy benefit from global stimulus packages? ....... 145

Focus on the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility ....... 148

Could the green hydrogen boom lead to additional renewable capacity by 2026? ....... 151

How rapidly will the global electricity storage market grow by 2026? .... 154

Are conditions right for biojet to take flight over the next five years? ..... 157

Condition 1 – Confidence in biojet ..... 158

Condition 2 – Costs .... 159

Condition 3 – Policies ..... 160

Condition 4 – Production .... 161

Condition 5 – Feedstock sustainability ....... 162

Are renewable heating options cost-competitive with fossil fuels in the residential sector?..... 163

Upfront costs ...... 163

Operating costs ...... 165

Overall cost-competitiveness of heating technologies ....... 166

References ...... 168

General annex ....... 172

Abbreviations and acronyms....... 172

Units of measure ..... 173

List of boxes

Box 2.1 India has tripled ethanol demand over the past five years, putting it on track to be the world’s third-largest ethanol consumer by 2026 ...... 100

List of figures

Average annual renewable capacity additions and cumulative installed capacity, historical, forecasts and IEA Net Zero Scenario, 2009-2026 ....... 22

IEA five-year renewable capacity forecasts by country/region, main case, 2021 and 2021 ..... 23

Renewable electricity auctioned capacity by country/region, 2015-2021 (left) and by technology and corporate PPAs, 2015-2021 (right) ..... 24

Auction-awarded renewable capacity by contract duration, 2017-2021 ...... 25

Top-ten countries’ share of total installed renewable capacity, historical and main case forecast, 1991-2026 ..... 26

Annual capacity additions of solar PV, wind and other renewables, main and accelerated cases, 2020-2026 ..... 27

Solar PV and onshore wind capacity additions, actual and forecast by country/region, 2015-2026 ....... 28

Hydropower and wind electricity generation growth in selected markets, 2015- 2020 average and 2021 ....... 30

Renewable electricity generation by technology, 1990-2026 (left) and share by technology, 1990-2026 (right) ...... 31

Share of wind, solar PV, hydropower and all renewables in total electricity generation, 2000-2026 ..... 32

Wind and solar PV generation curtailment by country ..... 33

Average annual capacity additions by technology, actual, forecasts and IEA Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2026 ..... 34

China renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and non-fossil energy target proposals for 2030 (right) ....... 35

United States renewable capacity additions, 2008-2026 (left) and solar PV and wind PPA capacity and average contract price, 2014-2020 (right) ...... 37

United States solar and wind capacity additions, 2017-2026 (left) and low-carbon

electricity target, 2020-2030 (right) ...... 39

Asia Pacific renewable capacity additions by country, 2019-2026 (left) and capacity additions by technology, 2015-2026 (right) .... 41

India renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and national targets for 2022 and 2030 (right) ....... 42

India renewable capacity awarded via auctions, 2018-2021 (left) and DISCOMs’ overdue payments to generators, 2019-2021 (right) .... 43

Japan renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and renewable energy capacity targets, 2019-2030 (right) ...... 45

Korea renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and average revenue per MWh by technology,  2017-2020 (right) .... 47

ASEAN renewable capacity additions by country, 2019-2026 (left) and capacity additions by technology, 2015-2026 (right) ...... 49

Australia renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and renewables

curtailment, Q1 2019-Q2 2021 (right) ...... 50

EU member states installed renewable capacity and capacity expected in 2030 based on submitted NECPs ..... 52

Europe renewable capacity additions by country, 2009-2026 (left) and capacity growth by technology, 2015-2026 (right) ...... 54

Germany renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and onshore wind auctions (right) ...... 55

Spain renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and comparison of auction

prices and wholesale electricity prices, 2018-2021 (right) ....... 57

France renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left), and auction results, 2019- 2020 (right) ....... 59

Netherlands renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and share of budget

award by technology, 2016-2020 (right) ....... 61

Turkey renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and solar PV auction results, 2021 (right) ...... 63

Poland’s renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left), and estimated PV and wind capacity additions resulting from renewable energy auctions, 2017-

2021 (right) ....... 64

Italy renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and FER auction results, 2019-2021 (right) ...... 66

United Kingdom renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left), and CfD auction results (capacity and strike prices), 2021-2026 (right) ..... 67

Denmark renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and types of policy driver by technology, 2021-2026 (right) ....... 69

Belgium renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and historical and forecast solar PV additions by region, 2011-2026 (right) ..... 70

Latin America capacity additions by country, 2019-2026 (left) and capacity additions by technology, 2015-2026 (right) ...... 71

Brazil renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and awarded auction and spot market prices, 2018-2021 (right) ....... 72

Chile renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and non-conventional renewable generation historical share and future target and demand by type (right) .... 74

Mexico renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and Argentina renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (right) ....... 76

Colombia renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and capacity awarded by auctions, 2019 and 2021 (right) ....... 77

Sub-Saharan Africa renewable additions by country, 2019-2026 (left) and additions by technology and country, 2015-2026 (right) ...... 79

MENA renewable capacity growth by technology, 2009-2026 (left) and by country, 2021-2026 (right) .... 82

MENA solar PV growth, 2009-2026 (left) and awarded bid prices, 2014- 2022 (right) ....... 83

Biofuel demand growth and share of total demand by fuel (left) and region (right), main case, 2021-2026 ...... 90

Biofuel demand and share of total biofuel demand in the accelerated case versus the main case by fuel (left) and by region (right) ...... 92

Biofuel demand by region (left) and by fuel (right), main case, 2018-2026 ..... 93

Biofuel supply and demand growth by region and fuel, main case, 2022-2026 ...... 94

Biofuel regional demand (left) and supply (right), main case, 2018-2026 ....... 95

Biofuel demand growth by fuel (left) and share of fuel demand growth by region (right), main case, 2021-2026 ...... 97

US ethanol fuel supply (left) and Asian biodiesel and renewable diesel supply (right), main case, 2019 and 2026 ....... 99

Biofuel demand growth by region and fuel in the accelerated case, 2021-2026 ... 102

Biofuel production growth by region in the accelerated case (left) and total production shares by region in the main and accelerated cases (right), 2021- 2026 .... 103

Biofuel demand in the main case, accelerated case and the Net Zero Scenario, 2014-2026 ...... 105

Net trade by fuel and net trade share of demand by fuel, main case, 2020 and 2026 .... 109

Top five global exporters and importers of biofuel in 2026 compared with 2021, main case ....... 110

Net trade in 2021, 2026 main case and 2026 accelerated case .... 111

Renewable and non-renewable heat consumption and heat-related CO2 emissions in buildings and industry, world, 2010-2020 ...... 115

Increase in renewable heat consumption by energy source (left) and country/region (right), 2009-2026 ....... 122

Renewable heat consumption and share of total heat demand in buildings and industry, 2014-2026 .... 123

Increase in renewable heat consumption in buildings, and share of modern renewables and traditional uses of biomass in buildings heat demand, selected regions, 2015-2026 ...... 125

Contribution of different factors to changes in renewable electricity consumption in industry, selected regions, 2021-2026 ....... 126

Increase in renewable heat consumption in industry and share of renewables in industrial heat demand, selected regions, 2015-2026 ....... 127

Growth in renewable heat consumption and global cumulative heat-related CO2 emissions in the IEA outlook and Net Zero Emissions Scenario, world, 2021-2026 ...... 129

Monthly commodity and freight price indexes, 2020-2021 ..... 134

Utility-scale PV and onshore wind investment cost structure by component and by commodity breakdown ....... 135

Utility-scale PV and onshore wind, total investment cost change by commodity and freight input, from average 2019 prices....... 136

Impact of high commodity price scenario on forecast total investment costs and CAPEX, onshore wind and utility-scale PV, 2015-2026 ..... 138

Average wholesale electricity prices and LCOE of utility-scale solar PV and onshore in 2020 and in high commodity price scenario in Germany, United Kingdom and Spain..... 140

Demand decline in response to high prices, selected countries, 2021 ...... 142

Biofuel prices and feedstock costs in selected markets, ethanol (left) and biodiesel (right), 2017-2021 ....... 143

Global government clean energy stimulus in response to Covid-19, allocatedup to October 2021 ..... 145

Global government clean energy spending by sector and technology, allocated up to October 2021 ..... 146

Government clean energy approved spending by region and share of renewables, allocated up to October 2021..... 147

Estimated renewable capacity additions resulting from approved government spending, depending on private financing leverage, to be commissioned

over 2021-2026 ...... 148

EU RFF funding allocation by country and share of clean energy ..... 149

EU RFF fund allocation by sector and between renewables ..... 150

EU RFF fund allocation by renewable technology or fuel ...... 150

Global installed electrolyser capacity in 2020 and projects planned for

commissioning, 2021-2026 (left) and additional renewable capacity for

electrolysis, 2021-2026 ...... 151

Additional renewable capacity according to planned and announced green

hydrogen projects ....... 152

Global planned electrolyser capacity and estimation of additional renewable

capacity by country/region...... 153

Concentrated solar power, pumped hydro and batteries, installed storage

capacity in 2020 and 2026 ..... 154

CSP, PSH and battery storage capability in 2020 and 2026 ..... 156

PSH storage capability, 2021-2030 .... 157

Fossil jet and biojet fuel production cost ranges .... 159

Annual SAF demand range over the main and accelerated cases compared

with capacity potential .... 160

Investment cost range for selected residential space and water heating

technologies and regions ....... 164

Renewables 2021 Tables of contents

Analysis and forecasts to 2026

Average annual operating cost range for selected space and water heating

technologies and regions ....... 165

Levelised cost of heating for consumers, for selected space and water heating

technologies and countries..... 166

List of tables

Main and accelerated case policy and assumption summary .... 106

Recent policy updates encouraging the uptake of renewable heat ....... 117

Reductions in material processing due to high energy prices, commodities used in

renewables equipment, selected examples ....... 138

Trade measures targeting wind and solar PV equipment ...... 139