科尔尼全球物流行业现状报告 ( 英文 60页)

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目录

引言 1

执行摘要 4

宏观经济 7

引言：市场状况概览 7

深入分析主要经济体 7

全球冲突使供应链更加脆弱 8

结论：近岸外包作为全球分裂加剧的标志 10

航空 11

引言：市场更新与概览 11

需求：仍在滑行，还是即将起飞？ 11

运力：更多的运力即将到来——但不是你通常预期的来源 13

结论：应对需求和运力波动的需要 14

包裹/最后一英里 15

引言：亚马逊崛起 15

电子商务成为更大的驱动力——尽管增长放缓 15

承运市场的多样化 17

展望：发货人的策略 18

展望：承运人的策略 20

结论：适应波动性 20

第三方物流（3PL） 21

引言：3PL发货人环境如何演变？ 21

3PL的现状：寻找重型和高科技资产 21

发货人的现状：过剩运力待售 23

结论：3PL和发货人的未来走向 24

货运代理 25

引言：货运代理能否再次前进？ 25

结论：货运代理行业的五大市场要务 25

水运/港口 28

引言：需求和运力面临波动 28

地缘政治对航运的影响 29

日益增加的不确定性来源：气候相关影响 30

来自行业内外的新可持续性措施 30

结论：对承运人和发货人动态的意义 31

公路运输 32

引言：公路运输市场趋势 32

承运人：争取市场平衡 34

发货人：投资于能力提升 35

结论：加速的波动周期 36

铁路 37

引言：回顾困难的一年 37

当前的结构性挑战 39

结论：增长之路 39

仓储 40

引言：库存——终于有些平稳，但仍然很高 40

空间：空置率上升——价格也在上涨 41

劳动力：少做多成 43

结论：一些预测和建议 44

可持续性发展45

引言：持续进展——和持续挑战 45

问题范围——以及“范围”问题 45

为更美好的未来而合作 46

结论：公共和私人投资的核心作用 48

网络趋势 49

引言：加速重构 49

网络债务作为催化剂 50

重置网络范式 50

内部化还是外包？ 51

结论：赢家之道 51

附录 52

USBLC 估算方法52

历史比较 55

Table of contents

Introduction 1

Executive summary 4

Macroeconomics 7

Introduction: an overview of market conditions 7

A closer look at major economies 7

Global conflict is making supply chains more fragile 8

Conclusion: nearshoring as a sign of growing global fragmentation 10

Air 11

Introduction: market update and overview 11

Demand: still taxiing, or taking off? 11

Capacity: more is coming—but not from

where you’d usually expect 13

Conclusion: the need to navigate fluctuations in demand and capacity 14

Parcel/last mile 15

Introduction: Amazon rising 15

E-commerce becomes an even bigger driverdespite a slowing of growth 15

Increasing diversification of the carrier market 17

Looking ahead: shipper strategies 18

Looking ahead: carrier strategies 20

Conclusion: adapting to volatility 20

3PL 21

Introduction: How is the 3PL shipper landscape evolving? 21

Where 3PLs stand now: seeking assets, both heavy and high-tech 21

Where shippers stand now: overcapacity for sale 23

Conclusion: where 3PLs and shippers are heading next 24

Freight forwarding 25

Introduction: Can forwarding move forward once again? 25

Conclusion: five market imperatives for the forwarding industry 25

Water/ports 28

Introduction: choppy waters for demand and capacity 28

Geopolitical effects on shipping 29

A growing source of uncertainty: climate-related effects 30

New sustainability measures—from both within and outside the industry 30

Conclusion: what it all means for carrier–shipper dynamics 31

Motor 32

Introduction: market trends in motor transit 32

Carriers: fighting for market equilibrium 34

Shippers: investing in capabilities 35

Conclusion: an accelerating cycle of volatility 36

Rail 37

Introduction: a look back at a difficult year 37

Current structural challenges 39

Conclusion: the path to growth 39

Warehousing 40

Introduction: inventory—finally leveling off a bit, but still high 40

Space: vacancies are up—and prices still are, too 41

Labor: doing more with less 43

Conclusion: some predictions and  recommendations 44

Sustainability 45

Introduction: continued progress—and continued challenges 45

The scope of the problem—and the problem of “scope” 45

Partnering for a better future 46

Conclusion: the central role of public and private investment 48

Network trends 49

Introduction: rewiring, accelerated 49

Network debt as a catalyst 50

Resetting the network paradigm 50

To insource or to outsource? 51

Conclusion: the way of winners 51

Appendix 52

Estimating USBLC 52

Historical comparisons 55