麦肯锡：拉美地区在哪里实现增长？(英文 26页)

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WHERE WILL LATIN AMERICA’S GROWTH COME FROM?

该地区需要消除竞争力障碍，追求数字化，提高技能，改善经济基础。

拉丁美洲经济体在过去15年中的年均GDP增长率为3％，远低于其他发展中国家的增长。拉丁美洲GDP增长率近80％来自人口增长而不是生产力（展览）。在2000年至2015年期间，该地区的生产力仅增长了0.6％，是世界上任何一个地区表现最差的一个。没有更高的生产力，增长将受到来自三个破坏力力量的威胁。

Over the past 15 years, Latin American economies have, on average, posted faster GDP growth than those of developed regions but still lagged far behind the GDP growth of other developing economies. Now growth is under further threat as three disruptive forces hit the region simultaneously. The first disruption is declining fertility rates that undermine the growth of labor supply. In a region where around 80 percent of growth has come from a rising population, this matters. Second is the end of the commodity supercycle, a major change for Latin America, where high commodity prices have fueled growth. Third is the threat of increased protectionism, notably in the United States, which could put at risk the export-led share of Latin America’s growth. 

Given the potential constraint on growth as these disruptions play out, how should 

Latin America respond? In this paper, we discuss four priorities to be considered: 

expand high-value-added activities across key value chains by removing obstacles to competitiveness; promote the efficient adoption of digital and automation technologies; address the pressures created by a declining labor force by strengthening the link between education and employment and narrowing gender gaps; and invest in long-term drivers of productivity growth.