中国欧盟商会：商业信心调查2024 ( 英文 54页)

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今日，中国欧盟商会携手罗兰贝格管理咨询公司发布《商业信心调查2024》。该项年度调查是由529家欧盟商会会员公司完成，就在华欧洲企业2023年业绩以及未来前景等相关问题作答。

自2004年以来，中国欧盟商会便开展《商业信心调查》，罗兰贝格作为中国欧盟商会的调研分析合作伙伴，多年来双方一直紧密合作。

目录

执行摘要......1

1 由于 2023 年未达到预期，对经济逆风的担忧加剧......3

1.1 再投资价值下降.......3

1.2 中国不再是所有人的明显选择..4

1.3 国内企业也将部分投资转移出中国....7

2 随着零新冠疫情结束，经济问题现在显而易见......8

2.1 零新冠疫情不再是一切的罪魁祸首......8

2.2 对中国经济放缓的担忧加剧..9

2.3 宏观经济因素也对利润率造成压力......10

2.4 需求持续疲弱加剧产能过剩和竞争......11

2.5 公司收入略有改善......13

2.6 盈利能力受到打击......14

3  企业调整预期：负面循环正在形成......19

3.1 创纪录的数字报告在中国做生意变得更加困难.......19

3.2 监管障碍仍未解决......20

3.3 遵守数据法规是许多人关心的问题.... 22

3.4 由于市场准入和监管壁垒造成的业务损失创历史新高......23

3.5 知识产权 (ipr) 法律法规的执行仍然令人担忧....25

3.6 乐观情绪消退，前景悲观......27

3.7 企业应对增长放缓的战略可能会加剧中国的经济困境.....28

4 企业越来越需要应对经济安全政治...... 30

4.1 商业政治化仍在继续.......30

4.2 企业陷入相互冲突的法律制度.......30

4.3 政治化消费者需求带来的挑战增加....33

4.4 多元化呼声愈演愈烈，但不可能一蹴而就......34

5 增长需要时间和精力，但对某些人来说仍然可能无法实现......36

5.1 市场开放观念的改善.......36

5.2 即使市场更加开放，许多人在增加投资之前也会三思而后行....38

5.3 总部与中国业务的脱钩进一步降低了效率和投资者信心....39

5.4 外籍员工数量下降加速脱钩.....40

6 附件....41

7 个缩写......44

8 关于调查动机和设计.....45

9 关于罗兰贝格....46

10 关于中国欧盟商会......47

图表

图 1：三分之一的人计划削减再投资价值......3

图2：中国第一大投资目的地排名创历史新低......4

图 3：中国作为投资目的地的吸引力因行业而异......5

图 4：中国扩张计划创历史新低......5

图5：投资流出中国的增长............ 6

图 6：投资主要转向东盟和欧洲......6

图 7：近一半见证了中国合作伙伴将投资转移出中国......7

图 8：新冠肺炎相关因素对投资决策的影响正在减弱.......9

图 9：中国经济放缓是迄今为止主要的商业挑战....10

图 10：对盈利能力产生最显着不利影响的宏观经济因素......10

图 11：超过三分之一的人观察到其行业产能过剩....11

图12：不同行业不同程度产能过剩......11

图13：产能投资过度和需求疲软是产能过剩的主要驱动因素......12

图 14：近四分之三的受访者报告称，产能过剩导致通货紧缩趋势......12

图 15：五分之二的市场份额被国内竞争对手夺走......13

图 16：超过一个季度的报告收入下降....13

图 17：按行业划分的收入：结果喜忧参半......14

图 18：净利润与 2022 年相比持平......15

图 19：只有十分之三的人表示中国的息税前利润率高于世界其他地区......15

图 20：中国对全球利润的重要性在不同行业中参差不齐。 .....16

图 21：超过三分之二的受访者表示在中国开展业务变得更加困难......19

图22：做生意全面变得更加困难.......20

图 23：模糊性和不可预测性是监管环境的首要问题......21

图 24：主要监管问题因行业而异（第 1 部分）......22

图 25：主要监管问题因行业而异（第 2 部分）.......22

图 26：缺乏重要定义和易于触发的安全评估被视为主要问题挑战......23

图 27：数据法规推动本地化.......23

图 28：超过一半因市场准入和监管障碍而错失商机....24

图 29：市场准入和监管壁垒的普遍程度因行业而异....25

图 30：创纪录数量的报告错失了相当于其年收入一半以上的机会......25

图 31：近一半认为知识产权法律法规执行力度不够......26

图 32：知识产权侵权行为呈上升趋势......26

图 33：几乎一半的人预计会出现更多监管障碍......27

图 34：业务前景增加

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary.....1

1 concerns over economic headwinds intensify as 2023 falls short of Expectations.......3

1.1 value of reinvestments decreasing.......3

1.2 china no longer the obvious choice for all ....4

1.3 domestic players also shifting some investments out of china....7

2 with zero-covid now over, economic issues are now in plain sight....8

2.1 zero-covid no longer to blame for everything.......8

2.2 concern increases over china’s economic slowdown ....9

2.3 macroeconomic factors also weighing on profit margins.......10

2.4 persistent weak demand exacerbating overcapacity and competition....11

2.5 mild improvement in company revenues......13

2.6 profitability takes a hit......14

3 businesses revise expectations: a negative cycle in the making.......19

3.1 record number report doing business in china became more difficult .......19

3.2 regulatory obstacles remain unresolved.....20

3.3 complying with data regulations a concern for many.... 22

3.4 lost business due to market access and regulatory barriers second highest on record.......23

3.5 enforcement of intellectual property rights (ipr) laws and regulations remains a concern....25

3.6 fading optimism, negative outlook.....27

3.7 companies’ strategies to deal with slowing growth could add to china’s economic woes .....28

4 businesses increasingly have to navigate the politics of Economic security..... 30

4.1 politicisation of business continues .......30

4.2 businesses caught between conflicting legal regimes.......30

4.3 challenges stemming from politicised consumer demands increase....33

4.4 calls for diversification intensifying, but it cannot be achieved overnight.......34

5 progress takes time and effort, and still might not cut it for some......36

5.1 improvement in perceptions about market opening .......36

5.2 even with greater market opening, many will think twice before increasing investments....38

5.3 decoupling between hqs and china operations further reduces efficiency and investor confidence....39

5.4 fall in number of foreign employees an accelerant to decoupling.....40

6 annex....41

7 abbreviations .......44

8 about the survey motivation and design.....45

9 about roland berger....46

10 about the european union chamber of commerce in china.......47

TABLE OF FIGURES

Figure 1: One in three plan to cut value of reinvestment.......3

Figure 2: China’s ranking as a top destination for investments at record low .......4

Figure 3: Attractiveness of China as an investment destination varies by sector.......5

Figure 4: China expansion plans lowest on record.......5

Figure 5: Increase in investments moving out of China....... 6

Figure 6: Investments primarily rerouted towards ASEAN and Europe......6

Figure 7: Nearly half witnessed Chinese partners shift investments out of China....7

Figure 8: The impact of COVID-related factors on investment decisions is fading.......9

Figure 9: China’s economic slowdown the major business challenge by far ....10

Figure 10: Macroeconomic factors having most significant adverse impact on profitability.....10

Figure 11: Over a third observe overcapacity in their industry....11

Figure 12: Overcapacity observed to varying degrees across diff erent industries......11

Figure 13: Overinvestment in production capacity and weak demand the main drivers of overcapacity....12

Figure 14: Almost three quarters report deflation trends as a result of overcapacity ....12

Figure 15: Two fifths have lost market share to domestic competitors.....13

Figure 16: More than a quarter report revenue decreases....13

Figure 17: Revenue by industry: mixed results.....14

Figure 18: Net profits unchanged from 2022....15

Figure 19: Only three in 10 report higher EBIT margins in China relative to rest of the world.....15

Figure 20: Importance of China for global profits uneven across industries. .....16

Figure 21: More than two thirds report doing business in China became more difficult.....19

Figure 22: Doing business became more difficult across the board.......20

Figure 23: Ambiguity and unpredictability are top issues of regulatory environment.....21

Figure 24: Top regulatory issues vary by sector (part 1)......22

Figure 25: Top regulatory issues vary by sector (part 2).......22

Figure 26: Lack of important definitions and easily-triggered security assessments seen as main challenges.......23

Figure 27: Data regulations push localisation.......23

Figure 28: Over half miss business opportunities due to market access and regulatory barriers....24

Figure 29: Prevalence of market access and regulatory barriers varies by sector....25

Figure 30: Record number report missed opportunities equivalent to over half their annual revenue......25

Figure 31: Almost half find enforcement of IPR laws and regulations inadequate .....26

Figure 32: Uptick in IPR infringement.....26

Figure 33: Almost half expect more regulatory obstacles......27

Figure 34: Business outlook increasingly gloomy (part 1)....28

Figure 35: Business outlook increasingly gloomy (part 2).....28

Figure 36: Over half plan to cut costs....29

Figure 37: Over a quarter plan to cut costs by reducing headcount.....29

Figure 38: Majority report increased politicisation in last 12 months....30

Figure 39: One fifth concerned by lack of ability to conduct independent third-party audits.....31

Figure 40: Almost half expect EU’s CSRD to impact China operations......32

Figure 41: 44% expect EU’s CSDDD to impact China operations......32

Figure 42: Close to one quarter expect to be impacted by US export control policies.....33

Figure 43: Uptick in the rate of those reporting increasingly politicised consumer demands.....33

Figure 44: Three quarters have reviewed their supply chains in the last two years....34

Figure 45: Europe, India and ASEAN main beneficiaries of supply chain diversification....34

Figure 46: Majority import critical components they cannot easily replace.....35

Figure 47: Almost half reported some market opening....36

Figure 48: Hard-earned progress on market access in some sectors......37

Figure 49: Almost 40% perceive their industry to be fully open to foreign business.......38

Figure 50: Y-o-y decrease in rate of those likely to increase investments if granted greater market  access......38

Figure 51: Four in 10 report decoupling....... 39

Figure 52: HQ-China decoupling primarily impacts efficiency and investment plans....39

Figure 53: Nearly 40% struggle to attract or retain international talent....40

Figure 54: Lack of willingness to relocate seen as key issue for attracting foreign talent .....40

Figure 55: More than seven in 10 decarbonising China operations.....41

Figure 56: Over half aim to decarbonise after 2030......42

Figure 57: Decarbonising energy use employed as top decarbonisation strategy..... 42

Figure 58: Limited access to renewable energy stands out as top challenge.......43