高盛：2019年中国经济展望(英文 22页)

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提要

As headwinds to growth and confidence gather, Chinese policymakers have been flexible in easing policy to buffer the slowdown. But a big uncertainty that the market is grappling with concerns the economic roadmap farther out. Worries about a possible comeback of the debt-driven growth model, and/or a diminished economic role of private enterprises, weigh heavily on investors’ minds.

 For 2019, we expect the government to lower the GDP growth target modestly to “6.0-6.5%” (vs. “around 6.5%” this year), and eventually achieve 6.2%

full-year GDP growth. This will not be an easy task, as policymakers need to strike a fine balance between averting a sharp slide in growth and preventing a fast debt buildup.

nBroad fiscal policy will likely be the preferred tool to stabilize growth (with

off-budget fiscal deficit ramping up as needed). As consumption and export growth is likely to slow, we expect fixed investment—especially infrastructure—to accelerate on policy support and be a key leader in growth.

 CPI inflation will likely increase, but remain within the PBOC’s tolerance zone. This should allow scope for the dovish monetary policy stance to extend and push market rates moderately lower. We expect CNY to weaken in a managed way and ultimately breach 7.0 against the USD in the coming months, barring major positive developments on the US-China trade relationship.

 Further ahead, however, policy focus needs to shift from cyclical stimulus to deeper structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth. For instance, augmenting the social safety net would be key to bolstering consumption in the long run. Tackling the financial system’s structural inefficiencies such as the continued large presence of zombie state-related enterprises would be more effective than targeted micro assistance in protecting financing supply to the private sector. On the external side, laying a stronger foundation for capital account liberalization (e.g., with a more market-oriented CNY) would provide a big boost to the global status of China’s capital markets. Although these reforms