IMF：世界经济展望2019-10 ( 英文 208页)

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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers

CONTENTS

Assumptions and Conventions ix

Further Information xi

Data xii

Preface xiii

Foreword xiv

Executive Summary xvi

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1

Subdued Momentum, Weak Trade and Industrial Production 1

Weakening Growth 2

Muted Inflation 3

Volatile Market Sentiment, Monetary Policy Easing 5

Global Growth Outlook: Modest Pickup amid Difficult Headwinds 7

Growth Forecast for Advanced Economies 12

Growth Forecast for Emerging Market and Developing Economies 13

Inflation Outlook 16

External Sector Outlook 16

Risks: Skewed to the Downside 19

Policy Priorities 22

Scenario Box 1.1. Implications of Advanced Economies Reshoring Some Production 29

Scenario Box 1.2. Trade Tensions: Updated Scenario 31

Box 1.1. The Global Automobile Industry: Recent Developments and Implications for

the Global Outlook 34

Box 1.2. The Decline in World Foreign Direct Investment in 2018 38

Box 1.3. Global Growth Forecast: Assumptions on Policies, Financial Conditions, and

Commodity Prices 41

Box 1.4. The Plucking Theory of the Business Cycle 43

Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts 45

Box 1.SF.1. What’s Happening with Global Carbon Emissions? 56

References 63

Online Annex

Special Feature Online Annex

Chapter 2. Closer Together or Further Apart? Within-Country Regional Disparities and Adjustment in

Advanced Economies 65

Introduction 65

Regional Development and Adjustment: A Primer 70

Patterns of Regional Disparities in Advanced Economies 71

Regional Labor Market Adjustment in Advanced Economies 73

Regional Labor Mobility and Factor Allocation: Individual and Firm-Level Evidence 76

Summary and Policy Implications 78

Box 2.1. Measuring Subnational Regional Economic Activity and Welfare 80

Box 2.2. Climate Change and Subnational Regional Disparities 82

Box 2.3. The Persistent Effects of Local Shocks: The Case of Automotive Manufacturing

Plant Closures 84

Box 2.4. Place-Based Policies: Rethinking Fiscal Policies to Tackle Inequalities

within Countries 86

References 88

Online Annexes

Annex 2.1. Variables, Data Sources, and Sample Coverage

Annex 2.2. Calculation and Decomposition of Income Inequality

Annex 2.3. Shift-Share Analysis of Regional Labor Productivity

Annex 2.4. Counterfactual Exercise for Labor Productivity Changes in Lagging versus

Other Regions

Annex 2.5. Regional Labor Market Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks: Trade and

Technology Shocks

Annex 2.6. Firm-Level Analysis of Capital Allocative Efficiency

Chapter 3. Reigniting Growth in Low-Income and Emerging Market Economies: What Role Can Structural

Reforms Play? 93

Introduction 93

Structural Policy and Reform Patterns in Emerging Market and Developing Economies 97

The Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms in Emerging Market and Developing Economies 101

Accounting for Differences across Countries 106

Summary and Policy Implications 110

Box 3.1. The Political Effects of Structural Reforms 113

Box 3.2. The Impact of Crises on Structural Reforms 115

References 117

Online Annexes

Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Sample

Annex 3.2. Empirical Analysis—Methodological Details and Robustness Checks

Annex 3.3. Model Analysis

Statistical Appendix 121

Assumptions 121

What’s New 122

Data and Conventions 122

Country Notes 123

Classification of Countries 124

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 125

Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate

GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2018 126

Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 127

Table C. European Union 127

Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of

Export Earnings 128

Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position,

and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 129

Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 131

Table G. Key Data Documentation 132

Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 142

List of Tables

Output (Tables A1–A4) 147

Inflation (Tables A5–A7) 154

Financial Policies (Table A8) 159

Foreign Trade (Table A9) 160

Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 162

Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 169

Flow of Funds (Table A14) 173

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15) 176

World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 177

IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, October 2019 187

Tables

Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 10

Table 1.SF.1. Official Gold Reserves 50

Table 1.SF.2. Precious Metals Production, 2016–18 50

Table 1.SF.3. Relative Rarity 52

Table 1.SF.4. World Average Inflation Betas 54

Table 1.SF.5. Determinants of One-Month Return on Precious Metals 54

Table 1.SF.6. Asset Returns Associated with Largest Single-Day Changes in the S&P

500 Index 55

Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account

Balance, and Unemployment 57

Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current

Account Balance, and Unemployment 58

Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,

Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 59

Annex Table 1.1.4. Middle East and Central Asia Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,

Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 60

Annex Table 1.1.5. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,

Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 61

Annex Table 1.1.6. Summary of World Real per Capita Output 62

Table 2.4.1. Examples of Place-Based Policies 86

Online Tables—Statistical Appendix

Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita

Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP

Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs

in Manufacturing

Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices

Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators

Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net

Lending/Borrowing and General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding

Social Security Schemes

Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances

Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net

Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance

Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net

Lending/Borrowing

Table B10. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates

Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates

Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade

in Goods and Services

Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods

Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings:

Total Trade in Goods

Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions

Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Summary of External Debt

and Debt Service

Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt

by Maturity

Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External

Debt by Maturity

Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP

Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios

Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline

Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators

Figures

Figure 1. GDP Growth: World and Group of Four xvii

Figure 1.1. Global Activity Indicators 2

Figure 1.2. Contribution to Global Imports 2

Figure 1.3. Global Investment and Trade 3

Figure 1.4. Spending on Durable Goods 3

Figure 1.5. Global Purchasing Managers’ Index and Consumer Confidence 4

Figure 1.6. Global Inflation 4

Figure 1.7. Wages, Unit Labor Costs, and Labor Shares 5

Figure 1.8. Commodity Prices 5

Figure 1.9. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions 6

Figure 1.10. Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates and Spreads 7

Figure 1.11. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit 8

Figure 1.12. Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows 8

Figure 1.13. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, March 2019–September 2019 9

Figure 1.14. Global Growth 12

Figure 1.15. Emerging Market and Developing Economies:

Per Capita Real GDP Growth 15

Figure 1.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: Population in 2018 and Projected Growth Rates in

GDP per Capita, 2019–24 16

Figure 1.17. Global Current Account Balance 17

Figure 1.18. Current Account Balances in Relation to Economic Fundamentals 18

Figure 1.19. Net International Investment Position 18

Figure 1.20. Tech Hardware Supply Chains 20

Figure 1.21. Policy Uncertainty and Trade Tensions 21

Figure 1.22. Geopolitical Risk Index 21

Figure 1.23. Probability of One-Year-Ahead Global Growth of Less than 2.5 Percent 22

Scenario Figure 1.1.1. Advanced Economies Reshoring 29

Scenario Figure 1.2.1. Real GDP 32

Figure 1.1.1. Global Vehicle Industry: Share of Total, 2018 34

Figure 1.1.2. Global Vehicle Industry: Structure of Production, 2014 35

Figure 1.1.3. Global Vehicle Production 36

Figure 1.1.4. World Passenger Vehicle Sales and Usage 36

Figure 1.2.1. Advanced Economies: Financial Flows 38

Figure 1.2.2. Foreign Direct Investment Flows 39

Figure 1.2.3. Emerging Markets: Financial Flows 40

Figure 1.3.1. Forecast Assumptions: Fiscal Indicators 42

Figure 1.3.2. Commodity Price Assumptions and Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains

and Losses 42

Figure 1.4.1. An Illustration of the Plucking Theory 43

Figure 1.4.2. Unemployment Dynamics in Advanced Economies 44

Figure 1.SF.1 Commodity Market Developments 46

Figure 1.SF.2. Gold and Silver Prices 49

Figure 1.SF.3. Macro Relevance of Precious Metals 51

Figure 1.SF.4. Share of Total Demand 52

Figure 1.SF.5. Correlation: Precious Metals, Copper, and Oil 53

Figure 1.SF.6. Precious Metals versus Consumer Price Index Inflation 53

Figure 1.SF.1.1. Contribution to World Emissions, by Location 56

Figure 1.SF.1.2. Contribution to World Emissions, by Source 56

Figure 2.1. Subnational Regional Disparities and Convergence over Time 66

Figure 2.2. Distribution of Subnational Regional Disparities in Advanced Economies 66

Figure 2.3. Subnational Regional Unemployment and Economic Activity in Advanced

Economies, 1999–2016 67

Figure 2.4. Demographics, Health, Human Capital, and Labor Market Outcomes in

Advanced Economies: Lagging versus Other Regions 68

Figure 2.5. Inequality in Household Disposable Income within

Advanced Economies 70

Figure 2.6. Subnational Regional Disparities in Real GDP per Capita 71

Figure 2.7. Shift-Share Variance Decomposition, by Country, 2003–14 72

Figure 2.8. Sectoral Labor Productivity and Employment Shares: Lagging versus

Other Regions 73

Figure 2.9. Labor Productivity: Lagging versus Other Regions 74

Figure 2.10. Regional Effects of Import Competition Shocks 75

Figure 2.11. Regional Effects of Automation Shocks 76

Figure 2.12. Regional Effects of Trade and Technology Shocks Conditional on

National Policies 77

Figure 2.13. Subnational Regional Migration and Labor Mobility 78

Figure 2.14. Effects of National Structural Policies on Subnational Regional Dispersion

of Capital Allocative Efficiency 78

Figure 2.1.1. Subnational Regional Disparities: Before and after Regional Price Adjustment 80

Figure 2.2.1. Marginal Effect of 1°C Increase in Temperature on Sectoral Labor Productivity 82

Figure 2.2.2. Change in Labor Productivity of Lagging versus Other Regions Due to

Projected Temperature Increases between 2005 and 2100 83

Figure 2.3.1. Associations between Automotive Manufacturing Plant Closures and

Unemployment Rates 84

Figure 2.4.1. Effects of Fiscal Redistribution by Conventional versus Spatially Targeted

Means-Tested Transfers 87

Figure 3.1. Speed of Income-per-Capita Convergence in Emerging Markets and

Low-Income Developing Countries 94

Figure 3.2. Reform Intensity and Speed of Income-per-Capita Convergence in

Selected Economies 94

Figure 3.3. Overall Reform Trends 98

Figure 3.4. Reform Trends, by Area 99

Figure 3.5. Overall Reform Trends across Different Geographical Regions 100

Figure 3.6. Regulatory Indices, by Country Income Groups 100

Figure 3.7. Regulatory Indices, by Geographical Regions 101

Figure 3.8. Average Effects of Reforms 102

Figure 3.9. Industry-Level Effect of Domestic and External Finance Reforms on Output 104

Figure 3.10. Output Gains from Major Historical Reforms: Model-Based versus

Empirical Estimates 106

Figure 3.11. Effects of Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions 107

Figure 3.12. Effects of Reforms on Output: The Role of Informality 108

Figure 3.13. Model-Implied Gains from Reforms: The Role of Informality 109

Figure 3.14. Effect of Reforms on Informality 109

Figure 3.15. Effects of Reforms on Output: The Role of Governance 110

Figure 3.16. Gain from Packaging Domestic Finance and Labor Market Reforms 111

Figure 3.1.1. The Effect of Reform on Electoral Outcomes 114

Figure 3.1.2. The Effect of Reform on Vote Share: The Role of Economic Conditions 114

Figure 3.2.1. The Effect of Crises on Structural Reforms 116