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摩根斯坦利：2014美国酒店业发展展望(英文65 页)

    2014-01-22

摩根斯坦利：2014美国酒店业发展展望(英文65 页)

 Bullish on US Lodging in ‘14. We expect US RevPAR

to accelerate to 6.3% growth in ‘14 (from ~5.5% in ‘13),
driven by improving employment and business spend.
MS strategists expect the S&P500 to rise 9% in ‘14. As
Lodging has historically outperformed the S&P when
RevPAR accelerates, the avg upside for our Lodging
coverage PTs is 11%. Notably we expect all the ccorps
to outperform current consensus, and we favor
US exposure over non-US given relative R/R in ‘14.
Upgrading MAR to OW, Reiterating OW HOT / DRH,
Initiating on HLT at EW. We believe all these stocks
offer attractive (>12%) upside to our PTs but view MAR
as the best play for ’14 given high US exposure and
highest structural multiple / attractive FCF yield. We
don’t include asset sales in any of our PTs, which could
disproportionally help HOT / HLT / DRH.
Multiples. From ‘04-‘07, Lodging companies largely
maintained their multiples throughout the cycle. While
multiples are higher today, we believe that this is
warranted given higher ROICs, FCF, and SS margins
this cycle than last. We also believe there are 3+ years
left in the cycle. As a result, we assume ’14 multiples
will extend to ’15 for the C-corps. For REITs, we have
lowered multiples slightly for co’s that are still ramping
renovations in ’14. DRH is still our favored REIT.
Continue to be more cautious on “group” segment,
despite rising optimism. Based on our Sept ‘13
AlphaWise survey of convention planners, we continue
to be relatively more cautious on group trends in ‘14.
Hence, we remain EW Hyatt (~50% group) despite its
cheap multiple / high operating leverage.
[报告关键词]：   酒店  
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