波士顿: 日本半导体复兴 ( 英文 23页)

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日本半导体复兴

以技术领先加速“新方向”

执行摘要

在过去五年中，BCG 发布了一系列关于半导体供应链1的深入报告，这些报告“着眼于”该行业的关键问题和未来发展。沿着这条路走下去，我们将开始发布一系列关于供应链部分、地域和主题领域的报告，这些报告我们以前没有关注过。

在本报告中，我们探讨了日本半导体行业以及内存市场最近的变化。

我们强调的要点是：

• 半导体对当今的经济至关重要。半导体代表着一个价值 6000 亿美元的市场，支撑着日常技术以及对国家和经济安全至关重要的行业。

• 日本在半导体行业拥有独特的地位。日本是 NAND 和分立、模拟和其他 (DAO) 晶圆制造领域的全球领导者。日本也是半导体设备、工具和材料的领导者，在光刻胶处理设备等细分领域占有很高的份额。这些供应链活动分布在日本二十多个县的集群中。

• 日本正以此为起点继续前进。从这个起点出发，日本现在正在做出战略赌注来支持半导体行业，利用其原始设备制造商 (OEM)、外国投资以及与美国的密切联系，包括对前沿和成熟逻辑的投资。

• 对下一代 DRAM 的投资将加速日本的新方向政策。

• AI/GenAI 技术正在推动对半导体存储器的爆炸式需求。因此，下一代 DRAM 的需求正在快速增长，预计到 2028 年供应将受到限制。在现有战略赌注的基础上，包括对 EUV 以及成熟和前沿逻辑的投资，对下一代 DRAM 的大规模投资将大大加速日本政府新方向目标的实现——通过提高能源效率、劳动力生产率、供应链弹性和其他优先事项。

• 此类投资将有利于日本的经济和社会。存储器晶圆厂在就业和产出方面创造了显著的经济效益；它们代表了日本不断减少的劳动力的高增值用途；并且由于持续的资本和研发需求，它们稳步推动了该国的半导体生态系统。此外，先进的内存芯片也广泛应用于下游行业，这些行业为日本当前和未来的增值产出贡献了相当大的份额。

• 虽然内存行业仍然是资本密集型的，但现在比以前更安全了。由于市场碎片化的减少，内存投资的经济可行性比近代历史上任何时候都要高。内存周期内峰谷价格波动现在比 2010 年前低了 20 个百分点。此外，凭借与逻辑代工厂的深入合作，定制内存将增加内存制造商的差异化，部分减轻商品化的压力。

• 无论日本决定把重点放在哪里，都有一些成功的关键因素。为了增强其对半导体投资的吸引力（这是日本公开承诺的目标），日本可以吸引私人投资，确保本地创新，采取长期政策重点，并培养本地人才。

通过关注这些成功因素并利用其独特的地位，日本可以加速进入其新方向，增强其经济和国家安全以及全球技术领先者的地位。

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

Over the past five years, BCG has published a series of in-depth reports on the semiconductor supply chain1 that “look around the corner” at key issues and future developments in the sector. Continuing on this path, we are starting a series of reports on parts of the supply chain, geographies and topic areas which we have not previously focused on.

In this report, we explore the Japanese semiconductor industry as well as recent shifts in the memory market. 

The key points we highlight are:

• Semiconductors are critical to today’s economy. Semiconductors represent a $600B market undergirding both everyday technologies as well as industries critical to national and economic security.

• Japan has a unique position in the semiconductor industry. Japan is a global leader in NAND and discrete, analog, and other (DAO) wafer fabrication. Japan is also a leader in semiconductor equipment & tools and materials, with a high share in sub-segments such as photoresist processing equipment. These supply chain activities are distributed in clusters spanning more than two dozen prefectures across Japan.

• Japan is building on this starting point. From this starting point, Japan is now making strategic bets to support the semiconductor industry, leveraging its original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), foreign investment, and close ties with the United States, including investments in both leading-edge and mature logic.

• Investments in next-generation DRAM will accelerate Japan’s New Direction policy.

• AI/GenAI technologies are driving an explosive need for semiconductor memory. As a result, next-generation DRAM demand is growing rapidly and is expected to be supply-constrained through 2028. Building on existing strategic bets, including investments in EUV, as well as mature and leading-edge logic, scaled investments in next-generation DRAM would substantially accelerate progress towards the goals of the Japanese government’s New Direction—by promoting energy efficiency, workforce productivity, and supply chain resilience and other priorities.

• Such investments will benefit Japan’s economy and society. Memory fabs create significant economic benefits in terms of jobs and output; they represent a highly value-adding use of Japan’s shrinking workforce; and steadily drive the country’s semiconductor ecosystem due to continued capital and R&D requirements. Furthermore, advanced memory chips are also widely used in downstream industries that contribute a substantial share of Japan’s current and future value-added output.

• While still Capital-intensive, the memory industry is now a safer bet than it once was. Thanks to reduced market fragmentation, the economic viability of memory investments is greater than at any other point in recent history. Peak-to-trough price variability over a memory cycle is now 20 percentage points less intense than it was pre-2010. Further, by virtue of deeper cooperation with logic foundries, customized memory will increase differentiation for memory makers, partially reducing the pressures

• of commoditization.

• Regardless of where Japan decides to focus, there are a few critical factors for success. To enhance its attractiveness for semiconductor investment, a goal which Japan has publicly committed to, Japan can crowd-in private investment, ensure local innovation, adopt a long-term policy focus, and develop local talent.

By focusing on these success factors and leveraging its unique position, Japan can accelerate into its  New Direction, bolstering its economic and national security as well as its position as a global  technology leader.