激光行业研究(英文 54 页)

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Table of contents

Our thesis in six charts 3

Overview: China’s pressing need to upgrade and modernize its manufacturing industry 4

Valuation methodology: Using EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC framework 7

Intelligent manufacturing: A top priority for China’s “Manufacturing 2025” plan 9

1. How fast will industrial robots, CNC and fiber lasers grow over the next 10 years? 14

2. We expect share gains by local champions driven by R&D, market access and services 21

3. 2016-17E downstream capex not broadly encouraging, we favor smartphone & EV 27

Han’s: A proven laser leader to ride on China’s industrial upgrade; initiate at CL-Buy 42

Inovance: Increase TP/EPS, EV & FA as twin engines; off CL on less upside; reiterate Buy 44

Estun: Possible niche market winner but needs time; valuation stretched; initiate at Sell 46

Huagong Tech: Strong R&D background; diversified laser segments; fairly valued; Neutral 48

Siasun: Integration focused strategy helps to expand scale but limits cash return; Neutral 50

STEP: Upgrade to Neutral on less downside following underperformance 52

Appendix: Glossary 54

Disclosure Appendix 55