德勤：2017年认知技术调查报告（英文 25 页)

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The 2017 Deloitte State of Cognitive Survey

Executive summary

With all the talk about cognitive and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in business circles today, it’s natural to wonder whether these capabilities are having any measurable impact. 

So we asked some of the most aggressive adopters of cognitive technologies how they have fared to date, focusing on 250 “cognitive-aware” leaders within 

“cognitive-active” companies. Why this group in particular? Not only can early-phase signals from such early adopters provide a view from the front lines 

of these important developments, but many other executives are simply not yet sufficiently knowledgeable about cognitive technologies. 

What did these leaders tell us? Our survey results indicate that early adopters are bullish on cognitive and AI technologies, with expectations that they will transform both companies and entire industries. When these technologies are effectively integrated into workflows, they can directly influence how organizations accomplish tasks, make decisions, create engaging interactions, and generate stronger business outcomes. 

However, cognitive technologies are still maturing. The vendor landscape is fragmented; there is still a shortage of talent; 

and many initiatives are only focused on internal functions within companies, rather than on developing new products 

or improving customer interactions. Integration with existing systems remains a principal challenge.

We also asked respondents about the impact of cognitive technologies on the workforce. The picture is, for the most part, highly positive. A significant majority of respondents say 

they've either added jobs related to cognitive technologies or have experienced little or no job loss arising from their cognitive projects so far. They tend to expect this pattern to hold over the next three years as well, though with an uptick in the number who expect a moderate loss of jobs during that period.

Survey respondents were split on the level of transformation that cognitive technologies will drive. A portfolio approach may be best for many companies—exploiting early opportunities to build capabilities and develop institutional support, while at the same time focusing on more transformational innovation in support of individual products, processes, or business models. 

Although all the respondents profiled were experienced with cognitive technologies, some were more experienced than others. The most aggressive segment of respondents had implemented more projects, invested more money, employed more sophisticated technologies, and was the most positive about their outcomes. Two other groups were still positive overall about their more conservative approaches, but somewhat less so.

德勤（Deloitte）本周发布的一项研究表明，早期采用人工智能（AI）和认知技术的企业在获得经济收益的同时，正在创造新的就业机会。

接受调查的企业总体上对于认知技术在其组织中现期和未来，所扮演角色的看法是积极的。在接受调查的 250 名“有认知意识”的美国高管中，已经有接近三分之二（63％）的人已经开展了培训项目，帮助员工了解如何开发认知技术并与之协同工作。

与许多人认为的情况相反，调查对象并不认为失业是人工智能相关工作的一个重要结果，69％的受访者预计在未来三年内失业的数量会非常小，甚至不会带来什么失业。

该报告表示，事实上，超过四分之一的组织（29%）认为，随着人工智能和认知技术的普及，新工作机会将会随之增长。当被问及人工智能和认知技术带来的好处时，劳动力减少的排名是最低的（22%）。

德勤首席执行官Cathy Engelbert在一份声明中表示：“人们担心‘机器的崛起’将取代员工，但我们应该看看人们和机器如何以合作的方式协同工作。” Cathy Engelbert表示， “利用新技术作为我们员工队伍新工具的能力最终将为我们的员工建立高价值技能提供新的机会。”

绝大多数的受访者（92%）认为认知技术是其内部业务流程的一个重要部分，87%的受访者认为认知技术将在改善其产品和服务方面起到重要的作用。此外，大约有四分之三（76%）的受访者希望AI和认知技术能够在三年内实质性地改变他们的公司。

调还查发现，有12%的公司在认知技术方面投入超过了1000万美元。而投入在500万到1000万美元、100万到500万美元以及50万到100万美元的公司比例都在25%左右，只有7%的公司的投入不到50万美元。这些投资主要面向IT、产品开发与研发以及客户服务。总体而言，目前公司使用的认知技术还处于初级阶段，而且大多数公司还没有为这些技术提供良好的预算。

大约四分之三认知技术的早期应用者在探索那些成熟的认知技术，他们正在使用于机器人流程自动化（RPA）（73%）、统计机器学习（70%）以及深度学习神经网络（49%）。

到目前为止，这些较新的技术似乎正在得到回报。大多数受访者表示人工智能和认知技术带来了中等到显著的经济收益。

那些表示获得了最大经济效益的组织认为认知工具应该用于转型变革，而不是渐进式的改进。但是，略占多数的人则更喜欢从最成熟的项目入手，或者再等上几年，等到技术成熟。

德勤咨询（Deloitte Consulting）的Ryan Renner表示，那些希望通过认知技术获得竞争优势的企业应该“重新思考”何时、为什么以及如何通过人与机器的协同工作来取得更好的成果。

Renner还说，这些技术正在破坏组织如何执行任务、做出决策以及在客户和内部完成互动的方式。他表示，真正的价值只有知道如何在公司的业务、市场、彩票走势图和行业环境中最有效地应用技术的前提下才能创造出来。