高盛-生成式人工智能：炒作，还是真正的变革？( 英文 28页)

---

GENERATIVE AI: HYPE, OR TRULY TRANSFORMATIVE?

Since the release of OpenAI’s generative AI tool ChatGPT in November, investor interest in generative AI technology has surged. The disruptive potential of  this technology, and whether the hype around it—and market pricing—has gone too far, is Top of Mind. We speak with Conviction’s Sarah Guo, NYU’s Gary Marcus, and GS GIR’s US software and internet analysts Kash Rangan and Eric Sheridan about what the technology can—and can’t—do at this stage. GS economists then assess the technology’s potentially large impact on productivity and growth, which our equity strategists estimate could translate into significant upside for US equities over the medium-to-longer term, though our strategists also warn that past productivity booms have resulted in equity bubbles that ultimately burst. We also discuss where the most compelling investment opportunities in the AI space may lie today, and the near-term risks investors should most watch out for.        

生成式人工智能：炒作，还是真正的变革？

自11月份OpenAI的生成式AI工具ChatGPT发布以来，投资者对生成式AI技术的兴趣激增。 这项技术的颠覆性潜力，以及围绕它的炒作和市场定价是否太过分，是人们最关心的问题。 我们采访了 Conviction 的 SarahGuo、纽约大学的 Gary Marcus 以及 GS GIR 的美国软件和互联网分析师 Kash Rangan 和 Eric Sheridan，探讨了该技术现阶段能做什么、不能做什么。 然后，高盛经济学家评估了该技术对生产率和增长的潜在巨大影响，我们的股票策略师估计，这可能会在中长期内转化为美国股市的显着上涨空间，尽管我们的策略师也警告说，过去的生产率繁荣导致了股市泡沫 最终破裂。 我们还讨论了当今人工智能领域最引人注目的投资机会可能在哪里，以及投资者最应该关注的近期风险。