波士顿：无人驾驶汽车能否阻止城市交通的崩溃？( 英文 27页)

---

AT A GLANCE

Although autonomous vehicles (AVs) could transform urban mobility, enthusiasm toward them has cooled—in part because they won’t be available at scale soon, and in part because they could exacerbate urban sprawl or traffic volume if they appear independently of suitable regulations and policies. Despite critical skepti-cism, however, AV pilot programs continue to attract significant investment. 

Unique Approach

In a one-year study, BCG and the University of St. Gallen examined how AVs could affect different cities in the future. Using data from 40 cities worldwide, researchers defined five common urban archetypes. Then they created a complex simulation tool and modeled how AVs, interacting with other forms of mobility in each arche-type, altered the cities’ KPIs. Finally, they interviewed leading experts on the topic. 

Differentiated View

By simulating different policy-based scenarios, the team found that AVs improved KPIs in many archetypes. Some cities would benefit most from AVs; others would be better off promoting other mobility options. Leveraging these findings, the team has developed recommendations for cities and mobility players to enable them to derive maximum benefits from emerging urban mobility trends and technologies.

尽管无人驾驶汽车（AV）可以改变城市的出行方式，但对它们的热情有所降低-部分原因是它们将很快无法大规模使用，部分原因是如果它们出现在不受适当法规约束的情况下，可能会加剧城市蔓延或交通流量和政策。尽管存在严重的怀疑主义，但AV试点计划仍继续吸引大量投资。

独特的方法

在一项为期一年的研究中，BCG和圣加仑大学研究了AV在未来如何影响不同的城市。研究人员使用来自全球40个城市的数据，定义了五种常见的城市原型。然后，他们创建了一个复杂的仿真工具，并模拟了自动驾驶汽车如何与每种原始类型的其他形式的移动性相互作用，从而改变了城市的KPI。最后，他们就该主题采访了知名专家。

差异化的观点

通过模拟不同的基于策略的方案，团队发现AV在许多原型中改进了KPI。有些城市将从自动驾驶汽车中受益最大；其他人最好推广其他交通方式。利用这些发现，团队为城市和交通参与者制定了建议，使他们能够从新兴的城市交通趋势和技术中获得最大的收益。