波士顿：2021年石油和天然气的价值创造( 英文 19页)

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AT A GLANCE

International oil companies (IOCs) have underperformed the S&P 500 in total shareholder returns (TSR) for more than a decade. COVID-19 added to the sector’s challenges, as a pandemic-induced demand shock sent oil and stock prices tum-bling. Even after rallying late in 2020, oil and gas is in last place among tracked industry sectors for TSR. Investors expect demand to recover in the second half of 2021, but most predict that oil and gas companies will not fully capture this upside. 

Differing Responses

During the pandemic, IOCs have accelerated their transformation plans for a radically altered energy system. European players are becoming broad-based energy companies. North American IOCs are keying on hydrocarbons and increasing efficiencies. Despite these different strategies, US-based Chevron and France-based Total were TSR winners thanks to balance sheet strength and payout sustainability. 

Preparing for the Future 

IOCs must be proactive if they are to create value and win back investor confidence. European companies must prove the business case for low-carbon investments, and North American players will need to future-proof their portfolios. Both groups must improve their operational returns to continue their transformation journey. 

十多年来，国际石油公司（IOC）的总股东回报（TSR）均不及标准普尔500指数。由于大流行引起的需求冲击使石油和股票价格暴跌，COVID-19增加了该行业的挑战。即使在2020年末上涨之后，石油和天然气在TSR跟踪的行业中仍排在最后。投资者预计需求将在2021年下半年恢复，但大多数人预测石油和天然气公司将无法完全抓住这一上升空间。

不同的回应

在大流行期间，国际石油公司加快了他们针对彻底改变的能源系统的转型计划。欧洲企业正在成为基础广泛的能源公司。北美的IOC致力于开发碳氢化合物并提高效率。尽管采取了这些不同的策略，但由于资产负债表的实力和支付能力的可持续性，美国的雪佛龙公司和法国的道达尔公司还是TSR的赢家。

为未来做准备

国际石油公司要想创造价值并赢得投资者信心，就必须积极主动。欧洲公司必须证明低碳投资的商业理由，而北美公司则需要对他们的投资组合进行前瞻性验证。两组都必须提高运营回报率才能继续进行转型。