安永：2023年全球采矿及金属行业十大业务风险与机遇专题报告( 英文 56页)

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Top 10 business risks and opportunities for mining and metals in 2023

Executive Summary

Boom, bust, digital transformation and climate change

Fifteen years of the EY Top 10 business risks and opportunities for mining and metals

When our first report was released in 2007, the sector was quite different from what it 

is today. That year’s report reflected the sector’s declining prices, with cost reduction considerations, consolidation and capital management named as top risks amid a sharp focus on ensuring future growth. Just a few years later, we emerged into the supercycle, and risks changed as other factors came to the fore — including resource nationalism, a global skills shortage, a tightening economy and rising inflation. It was a period where the mining sector looked for growth at any cost. 

The cycle turned again and, in 2016, we hit another downturn. At the time, we nearly decided to discontinue the report. It seemed as if there would be one set of risks for the good times and one set for the bad times. But, in 2017, things changed again. Our 10th report reflected miners’ focus on digital transformation, which appeared as a genuine disrupter. There were questions as to who the Kodak or the Uber of the mining sector might be. But it turned out not to affect the mining sector too much. At least not at first.

It was the emergence of social issues over the past few years that proved truly disruptive. Last year’s list of risks was topped by environmental, social and governance (ESG), reflecting miners’ new focus on considering different business models. In fact, ESG-related issues made up the entire top three risks of last year’s report — each with a significant, distinctive impact that made it impossible to treat them as one risk. The combination of these social and environmental issues with digital transformation is driving sector-wide transformation, prompting changes to portfolios and risk appetite, creating regional differences and some nationalization. As we head into 2023, the mining and metals sector is responding with more fundamental shifts to business and operating models. 

This presents a rare opportunity for miners to analyze where optimal value can be found — and to redefine business models to capture that value. Companies that do this successfully will future-proof their business model to better deal with disruption and changing commercial relationships, and ultimately win competitive advantage.

报告概要：

►ESG仍为首要风险和机遇，但随着全球冲突和不确定性的影响，地缘政治排名已飙升至第二位。

► 由于通货膨胀的冲击，成本和生产力的排名已从第十位跃升至第五位，矿企需探索新的方法来管理成本，释放价值。

► 在解决造成供应链中断的多种因素时，企业倍感压力，供应链因而成为十大风险中的新增风险。

采矿及金属行业企业在迈向目的明确、低碳、数字化的转型时，如何应对眼前如成本上升、供应链中断等挑战？

本期的采矿及金属行业十大风险与机遇排名反映了矿企身处瞬息万变的世界中面临的竞争重点。ESG问题仍是首要挑战，但其范围和复杂性正不断扩大和增加。与此同时，全球冲突和资源民族主义导致地缘政治排名提升，要求矿企进一步深入了解地缘政治对战略的影响。

矿企设定实现净零排放的途径表明全球各行各业对气候变化的关注，但若想实现目标，还需制定一个切合实际、各方平衡的战略。

供应链于今年首次上榜。全球贸易中断对该行业的打击尤为严重，在2023年，矿企将顶住压力，继新冠肺炎疫情前的进度，快速推进供应链转型。

我们迈向2023年时，采矿及金属行业正针对业务和运营模式进行更为基础的转变。新业务模式使矿企有望在变幻莫测的未来重新定位，许多公司正在考虑合理化、增长和转型战略的益处。随着需求和预期发生变化，认真审视并转变业务模式的公司目前能够在竞争对手之中脱颖而出。